Method
Our poll-based analysis sets itself apart from other probability models by focusing exclusively on the data from each state's latest qualifying poll.
For each state, DC, and the districts in Maine and Nebraska, we compute the statistical probability of victory for each candidate based on the latest poll's sample size and candidate's polling percentage.
Electoral College Analysis
We calculate the probability for each electoral vote race utilizing the data from our latest poll analysis.
Here are the current states/districts where the chance of winning for Harris or Trump is 90% or higher, along with their associated electoral vote value:
Harris 209
Swing States 140
Trump 189
54-
California
10-
Colorado
7-
Connecticut
3-
Delaware
3-
DC
4-
Hawaii
19-
Illinois
2-
Maine
1-
Maine CD-1
10-
Maryland
11-
Massachusetts
10-
Minnesota
1-
Nebraska CD-2
14-
New Jersey
5-
New Mexico
28-
New York
8-
Oregon
4-
Rhode Island
3-
Vermont
12-
Washington
11-
Arizona
30-
Florida
16-
Georgia
15-
Michigan
6-
Nevada
4-
New Hampshire
16-
North Carolina
19-
Pennsylvania
13-
Virginia
10-
Wisconsin
9-
Alabama
3-
Alaska
6-
Arkansas
4-
Idaho
11-
Indiana
6-
Iowa
6-
Kansas
8-
Kentucky
8-
Louisiana
1-
Maine CD-2
6-
Mississippi
10-
Missouri
4-
Montana
2-
Nebraska
1-
Nebraska CD-1
1-
Nebraska CD-3
3-
North Dakota
17-
Ohio
7-
Oklahama
9-
South Carolina
3-
South Dakota
40-
Texas
11-
Tennessee
6-
Utah
4-
West Virginia
3-
Wyoming
Interactive Graphs
How to:
Using a Mouse:
Using a Touchscreen:
Highlight a state's chart
In legend, hover over state name
In legend, tap the state name TWICE
Remove a state's chart
In legend, click state's name
In legend, tap state's name
Bring back a removed state's chart
In legend, click state's name again
In legend, tap state's name again
See Harris's % chance of winning each state
Hover over chart data; move mouse right/left
Tap on chart data; move finger right/left
Here are the current "Swing States" where the chance of winning for either Harris or Trump is less than 90%.
The Path to 270
Harris’s most straightforward path to victory involves winning Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Virginia giving her 226 electoral votes.
By winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin she would win the presidency with 270 electoral votes.
Trump’s easiest path to victory involves winning the states where he is strongly favored, along with Florida, Maine CD-2 and North Carolina — which he won in both 2016 and 2020 — giving him 235 electoral votes.
He could then win the presidency if he wins Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Tiebreaker Scenario:
In the case of a 269-269 tie, the newly elected House of Representatives would choose the president, with Trump likely favored given the current state delegation composition.
The newly elected Senate would select the vice president, likely Trump’s running mate, JD Vance.
We mathematically solve for the overall odds for Harris and Trump winning the Electoral College from the probabilities assigned to each of the 56 electoral vote races.
With over 72 quadrillion potential outcomes, each with its own probability and electoral vote value, we compute the probability for every Electoral vote combination,
summing the probabilities where Harris secures 270+ electoral votes, Trump achieves 270+ electoral votes, and where the tally results in a 269-269 tie.
Here are the expected electoral vote totals for each party:
We monitor new polls daily and adjust our probability forecast for the Presidential election accordingly.
Based on current poll data, our model projects that Trump would win the presidency if the election were held today.
Senate Overview
The current Senate makeup consists of 47 Democrats and 4 Independents who caucus with them, alongside 49 Republicans, resulting in a narrow 51-49 majority for the Democrats.
However, the West Virginia seat is currently held by Joe Manchin, who recently departed from the Democratic party and declared as an Independent, though he's decided not to run for re-election.
Jim Justice, the Republican candidate, is widely expected to easily win this seat. West Virginia was the second-reddest state in 2020 with Trump winning by 38.9% in 2020.
This would put the starting point for the Senate at 50-50. This year, there are 34 Senate races with the Democrats defending 23 seats and the Republicans just 11.
Senate Analysis
We calculate the probability for each Senate race, utilizing data from the latest poll in each state.
Here are the Senate states where the probability of winning exceeds 90% for either party's candidate, as well as the swing states where the probability does not.
Democrats 42
Swing States 10
Republicans 48
(D)
California
(D)
Connecticut
(D)
Delaware
(D)
Hawaii
(I)
Maine
(D)
Maryland
(D)
Massachusetts
(D)
Minnesota
(D)
New Jersey
(D)
New York
(D)
Rhode Island
(I)
Vermont
(D)
Washington
(I)
Arizona
(R)
Florida
(D)
Michigan
(R)
Nebraska
(D)
Nevada
(D)
New Mexico
(D)
Ohio
(D)
Pennsylvania
(R)
Texas
(D)
Virginia
(D)
Wisconsin
(R)
Indiana
(R)
Missouri
(R)
Mississippi
(D)
Montana
(R)
Nebraska
(R)
North Dakota
(R)
Tennessee
(R)
Utah
(I)
West Virginia
(R)
Wyoming
(I) - Independent Senators who caucus with the Democrats
Here are our Senate Swing States where the current chance of winning for either party's candidate is less than 98%.
The Path to Senate Control
The best prospects for the Democrats to keep Senate control is to win
10 of the
11 Senate Swing states or just
9 if Harris wins the presidency.
To secure the necessary 50+ seats for Senate control, the Republican's best chance is to win in Florida, Nebraska, and Texas - the
states where they currently hold seats.
If they only win
2 of the
11, they can still gain Senate control if Trump wins the presidency.
We mathematically solve for the overall odds for the Democrat and Republican to win the Senate from the probabilities assigned to each of the 34 Senate seats.
With over 17 billion potential outcomes, each with its own probability and seat value, we compute the probability for every Senate seat combination,
summing the probabilities where the Democrats secures 51+ seats, the Republicans achieves 51+ seats, and where the tally results in a 50-50 tie.
We calculate the odds of winning control of the Senate by prorating the odds for a 50-50 tie to the probability of winning the presidency.
Here are the expected Senate seat totals for each party:
We monitor new polls daily and adjust our probability forecast for Senate Control accordingly.
If the election were held today, our poll-based model projects that the Republicans would gain control of the Senate.
