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These market-based odds are updated every 10 minutes using Polymarket's prices for each of the 35 races. Races for seats Democrats hold now are on the left; races for seats Republicans hold now are on the right. The 65 seats not up this year (31 Republican, 34 Democratic including King and Sanders) are counted automatically. A 50-50 Senate is shown separately; Vice President Vance would break the tie for the Republicans. In Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota the strongest challenger is an independent, counted here on the Democratic side. The total for each party is its seats not up this year plus the races where its candidate is currently favored. Each race is colored in shades of blue or red, according to the magnitude of the probability of winning. Each race has its own probability slider: Move the slider all the way to the right to set the candidate's odds of winning to 100%. Move the slider all the way to the left to set the opposing candidate's odds to 100%. The slider can be set to any whole percentage probability between 50% and 100% for the party which currently holds the seat or for the opposing party. As the slider moves, the state color, party total, the overall probability of winning and the Senate seat distribution probabilities are updated instantly! |
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