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Method Real-money prediction markets or betting markets offer an exciting, alternate set of race odds to analyze. In 2024, we're deriving our market-based odds from pricing data at Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform. Polymarket offers futures contracts for all 56 electoral state/district races as well as each Senate race. Market-based odds reflect what traders predict the odds will be on Election Day, November 5th. These predictions are dynamically shaped by market sentiment and reflect evolving perceptions of each candidate's chances as the election draws nearer. Electoral College Analysis We calculate the probability for each electoral vote race utilizing the bid/ask data from the Polymarket prediction market futures contract. Here are the current states/districts where the chance of winning for Harris or Trump exceeds 80% along with their associated electoral vote value:
Here are our current "Swing States" where the chance of winning for either Harris or Trump is 80% or less. These 7 Swing State races include the five states that shifted from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 as well as Nevada and North Carolina. Harris’s most straightforward path to victory involves winning Pennsylvania and Michigan and either Arizona or Wisconsin.
Trump’s easiest path to victory involves winning the states where he is strongly favored, plus North Carolina, the only Swing State he won in 2020, giving him a total of 235 electoral votes.
If Trump then wins Pennsylvania and Georgia he wins the presidency with a total of 270.
Here are the expected electoral vote totals for each party: We monitor the Polymarket prediction markets daily and adjust our market-based projections accordingly. Biden was leading in early May, but Trump managed to surpass him on May 10th, and his lead over the Democratic nominee, now Harris, continued until August 6 when Harris took the lead. As of October 9, Trump has retaken the lead. Senate Overview The current Senate makeup consists of 47 Democrats and 4 Independents who caucus with them, alongside 49 Republicans, resulting in a narrow 51-49 majority for the Democrats. However, the West Virginia seat is currently held by Joe Manchin, who recently departed from the Democratic party and declared as an Independent, though he's decided not to run for re-election. Jim Justice, the Republican candidate, is widely expected to easily win this seat. West Virginia was the second-reddest state in 2020 with Trump winning by 38.9% in 2020. This would put the starting point for the Senate at 50-50. This year, there are 34 Senate races with the Democrats needing to defend 23 seats and the Republicans just 11.
Senate Analysis
The 9 Swing State races include 6 seats held by Democrats and, in Arizona, an Independent seat held by Kyrsten Sinema, who caucuses with the Democrats, as well as Republican seats in Nebraska and Texas. To retain control of the Senate, Democrats need to win 8 of the 9 Swing State races or 7 if Harris wins the presidency. To secure the necessary 50+ seats for Senate control, the Republican's best chance is to hold Nebraska and Texas and capture Montana or Ohio, where where they are currently favored. If they only win 2 of the 9 Swing states, they can still gain Senate control if Trump wins the presidency. We mathematically solve for the overall odds for each party to win the Senate from the probabilities assigned to each of the 34 Senate seats. With over 17 billion potential outcomes, each with its own probability and seat value, we compute the probability for every Senate seat combination, summing the probabilities where the Democrats secure 51+ seats, the Republicans secure 51+ seats, and where the tally results in a 50-50 tie. We calculate the odds of winning control of the Senate by prorating the odds for a 50-50 tie to the probability of winning the presidency. Here are the expected Senate seat totals for each party: We monitor the Polymarket prediction markets daily and adjust our market-based projections accordingly. Currently, the Republicans are strongly favored to win control of the Senate. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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