Background
Starting with the Bush/Gore race in 2000, we've been providing our unbiased probability analysis of the Electoral College for every Presidential election.
We publish our projections on LatestPollResults.com beginning several months ahead of each election, update them daily, and post our final projections once the last polls are released,
typically on the eve of Election Day.
Over the years, our method has remained consistent. Our model evaluates the probability of winning for each party's candidate in each individual race and then uses these probabilities
to calculate each party's overall odds of winning.
Presidential Elections
To determine the winner of the Electoral College, we begin by calculating the odds for each candidate across the 56 races where electoral votes are in play:
each of the 50 states, D.C., and the 5 congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. With our 2-party system, we can safely assume that the Democrat or Republican will win each state/district.
This intricate mathematical challenge yields over 72 quadrillion possible election outcomes (2^56).
Our model computes the odds for each of the 539 electoral vote combinations ranging from 0D-538R, to 538D-0R.
From these results, we can compute each candidate's probability of winning the Electoral College and becoming president.
We provide a user-friendly tool we call The Wizard of Odds, which allows users to manually adjust independent probability sliders for each of the 56 electoral races.
This tool enables users to instantly view each candidate's overall odds of winning the presidency, their Electoral Vote count (assuming victories in state/districts where they're favored),
and the odds associated with various electoral vote combinations.
Senate Elections
Similarly, our model extends to analyzing which party will win control of the Senate. In 2024, 34 Senate seats will be decided.
We calculate the odds for each party's candidate in each race. Assuming that every race will be won by a Democrat or Republican (or by an Independent who will caucus with the Democrats or Republicans),
there are over 17 billion possible outcomes (2^34). Our model computes the odds for every possible Senate seat distribution,
from which we can compute each party's probability of winning control of the Senate.
We provide a user-friendly tool we call The Senate Wizard, which allows users to manually adjust independent probability sliders for each of the 34 Senate races.
This tool enables users to instantly view each party's overall odds of winning control of the Senate, their Seat total (assuming victories in the races where they're favored),
and the odds associated with various Senate seat combinations.
The Odds
We draw our race odds from two distinct sets of probabilities:
Poll-based odds - Our poll-based odds originate from the latest poll conducted in each race. By analyzing the sample size and the percentage of the vote garnered by each candidate,
we calculate each candidate's odds of winning the race. We've used poll-based odds to provide Electoral College projections since 2000 and Senate race projections since 2010.
Market-based odds - Our market-based odds stem from prediction markets,
reflecting the sentiments of bettors who buy or sell futures contracts for a given race. In 2024, our market-based odds are derived from the pricing data at Polymarket,
a prediction market platform that offers futures contracts for all 56 electoral state/district races and each Senate race.
From 2016 through 2022, we used the bid/ask pricing on political futures contracts on the PredictIt.org marketplace.
PredictIt.org appeared as a prominent player in prediction markets after securing a No Action Letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC),
allowing U.S. residents to legally take part in political contract trading beginning with the 2016 election. We've translated PredictIt's bid/ask pricing into probabilities,
allowing us to provide market-based projections for the Electoral College and Senate control since 2016.
However, PredictIt's ability to introduce new political contracts has been hampered by legal disputes with the CFTC after the revocation of its No Action Letter.
Operation
LatestPollResults.com is operated and co-authored by Stephen and Mark Delano.
Contact: steve@LatestPollResults.com
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