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Updated November 5, 2024 @ 1:15am ET - Election Day |
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For 24 years, LatestPollResults.com has provided an unbiased probability analysis of the Electoral College.
Our poll-based model has accurately predicted the last 6 presidential elections, with 3 forecasts for each party:
Presidential Election Model - The Wizard of Odds ℠ To forecast the presidential winner, we analyze the Electoral College by calculating each candidate's odds of winning the popular vote in all states, DC, Maine's two congressional districts, and Nebraska's three districts. Using these 56 individual odds and their corresponding electoral vote values, The Wizard of Odds ℠ computes the probabilities for every possible electoral vote combination, determining each candidate's overall odds of winning from over 72 quadrillion potential outcomes. Senate Control Model - The Senate Wizard ℠ To forecast which party will control the Senate, we calculate the odds of winning for each party's candidate in all Senate races. The Senate Wizard ℠ computes the probability of every possible Senate seat combination, determining each party's overall odds of winning from over 17 billion possible outcomes.
Poll-based Odds Our poll-based odds for each race are derived from the latest qualifying poll. We calculate the statistical probability of winning for each candidate based on the poll's sample size and reported percentages. Our model operates uniquely, focusing solely on the most recent poll conducted in each state or district. Unlike methods relying on polling averages, which encompass data collected over prolonged periods, we prioritize the latest polling data. We recognize that the national mood fluctuates daily, shaped by various factors such as stock market performance, prevailing global and local events, and even weather conditions influencing human behavior. By analyzing the freshest polling data from every state, our aim is to accurately capture the latest voting trends. Market-based Odds Our market-based odds are derived from prediction and betting markets, which we have been tracking since the 2016 election. For 2024, we calculate the probability for each race using bid/ask data from the relevant futures contracts at Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform. Market-based odds respond quickly to late-breaking news and can be a lead indicator pending updated polling results. Poll-based Odds vs Market-based Odds - Which is better? Both are valuable! Ideally, poll-based and market-based odds would closely align for each race, and thus have similar overall forecasts. By utilizing the latest poll, we access the most current data; however, polls only capture a snapshot in time, and their release date can be several days after the actual survey period. In contrast, market-based odds are continuously updated through 24-hour trading, providing real-time insights for every race, especially in response to late-breaking news or emerging trends. However, as election day nears, the frequency of polls will increase substantially, and our track record for poll-based projections of the presidential election has been perfect. Qualifying Polls To qualify for inclusion, a poll must meet these criteria:
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