Senate Control
DEM
GOP
% chance-
% chance-
seats favored-
seats favored-
projected-
projected-
GOP keeps control at 50-50. Seats include the 65 not up this year.
% Chance Control
Seats Favored
% Chance
Seats Favored
Projected
House Control
DEM
GOP
% chance-
% chance-
seats favored-
seats favored-
projected-
projected-
218 seats for a majority.
% Chance Control
Seats Favored
Senate: chance of each outcome
Latest moves
Waiting for the markets to move…
House: chance of each outcome
Senate swing races: closest first
Every race with the favorite under 85%. Races move in and out of here as the odds change.
Senate: DEM favored 85% or more
Senate: GOP favored 85% or more
House: all 435 districts
✓ called · dashed border: market paused · ▲▼ on the big numbers: the last change · ▲▼ on a Senate race, ring ring on a House district: moved 2+ points in the last 10 minutes, colored for the party gaining