POLL-BASED ODDS MARKET-BASED ODDS THE WIZARD OF ODDS ℠ THE SENATE WIZARD ℠ OUR TRACK RECORD ABOUT US

Our Track Record

Poll-Based Model Our poll-based model has a perfect record projecting the winners in the 6 Presidential elections since 2000 and a near perfect record with the 7 Senate projections since 2010. The general consensus is that the polls were wrong in 2016. But our model, which ignores all polls except the last poll in each state, proved to be accurate once again. Our model is designed to capture late voter trends that others miss by averaging polls. Our analysis includes a projection for the Popular Vote. Presidential Projections Year   2000     2004     2008     2012     2016     2020     Projected Winner     Bush 71.2%     Bush 66.2%     Obama 99.96%     Obama 86.4%     Trump 67.8%     Biden 73.9%     Result                           Senate Projections Year   2010     2012     2014     2016     2018     2020     2022     Projected Winner     Dem 97.6%     Dem 99.8%     Rep 85.7%     Rep 79.4%     Rep 99.96%     Dem 90.1%     Rep 96.6%     Result                             ❌   Popular Vote Projections Year   2000     2004     2008     2012     2016     2020     Projected Margin     Bush +1.5%     Bush +1.6%     Obama +6.6%     Obama +1.5%     Clinton +2.3%     Biden +5.7%     Actual Margin     Gore +0.51%     Bush +2.46%     Obama +7.28%     Obama +3.86%     Clinton +2.09     Biden +4.46%     Difference     2.01%     0.86%     0.68%     2.36%     0.21%     1.24%   In 2000, we projected Bush to win the presidency and the popular vote though he lost the popular vote to Gore by 0.51%. In 2016, we were nearly alone in accurately projecting a Trump presidency, a Republican Senate, and for Clinton to win the popular vote. Market-Based Model We began our market-based analysis in 2016 and tracked the market projections for the Presidency and the Senate, based on the bid/ask pricing of market traded futures contracts on the PredictIt.org marketplace. In 2024, we are using the Polymarket futures contracts. Presidential Projections Year   2016     2020     Projected Winner     Clinton 87.6%     Biden 75.8%     Result     ❌       Senate Projections Year   2016     2018     2020     2022     Projected Winner     Dem 65.8%     Rep 98.8%     Dem 68.0%     Rep 79.7%     Result     ❌             ❌   Observation Our poll-based model exhibits greater sensitivity to last-minute trend shifts and has outperformed our less-sensitive market-based prediction model.

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