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Method Our poll-based analysis sets itself apart from other probability models by focusing exclusively on the data from each state's latest qualifying poll. For each state, DC, and the districts in Maine and Nebraska, we compute the statistical probability of victory for each candidate based on the latest poll's sample size and candidate's polling percentage. This approach allows us to capture late-breaking trends, although it's important to note that outlier polls can occasionally lead to wider swings in our forecasts. In contrast, other models typically average several recent polls within a state in determining each candidate's odds of winning that state. While this method can smooth out outliers, it may also overlook sudden shifts in voter sentiment. There over 72 quadrillion possible outcomes in the Electoral College, each with its own probability and electoral vote value. From our 56 individual state-specific probabilities, we calculate the exact overall probability of winning the Electoral College for each candidate. In contrast, other models rely on tens of thousands, or even millions, of simulations to estimate each candidate's overall odds of winning. Our track record is unmatched by any other model. Beginning with the Bush/Gore race in 2000, we've accurately projected the winner of the Electoral College in every election. Electoral College Overview
To secure the necessary 270 Electoral Votes for victory, Trump's easiest path is to win North Carolina (96% chance), Florida (94% chance), and Georgia (79% chance), in addition to winning any one of the remaining 6 states.
Currently, Trump's best prospects of winning an additional state: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Jersey. We mathematically solve for the overall odds for Harris and Trump winning the Electoral College from the probabilities assigned to each of the 56 electoral vote races. With over 72 quadrillion potential outcomes, each with its own probability and electoral vote value, we compute the probability for every Electoral vote combination, summing the probabilities where Harris secures 270+ electoral votes, Trump achieves 270+ electoral votes, and where the tally results in a 269-269 tie. Here are the expected electoral vote totals for each party: We monitor new polls daily and adjust our probability forecast for the Presidential election accordingly. So far, Trump has consistently led in most Swing State polls. If the election were held today, our poll-based model would project him to win.
Senate Overview Jim Justice, the Republican candidate, is widely expected to easily win this seat. West Virginia was the second-reddest state in 2020 with Trump winning by 38.9% in 2020. This would put the starting point for the Senate at 50-50. This year, there are 34 Senate races with the Democrats defending 23 seats and the Republicans just 11.
Senate Analysis
We are currently monitoring 10 Swing States in the Senate. To secure the necessary 50+ seats for Senate control, the Republican's best chance is to secure victories in the 3 states they are currently favored: Florida, Montana, Texas. If they only win 2 of the 3, they can still gain Senate control if Trump wins the presidency. The best prospects for the Democrats to keep Senate control is to win Nevada plus at least 7 of the remaining Senate Swing States or just 6 if Harris wins the presidency. They are currently favored in 6 states.
We mathematically solve for the overall odds for the Democrat and Republican to win the Senate from the probabilities assigned to each of the 34 Senate seats.
With over 17 billion potential outcomes, each with its own probability and seat value, we compute the probability for every Senate seat combination,
summing the probabilities where the Democrats secures 51+ seats, the Republicans achieves 51+ seats, and where the tally results in a 50-50 tie. Here are the expected Senate seat totals for each party:
We monitor new polls daily and adjust our probability forecast for Senate Control accordingly.
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