POLL-BASED
ODDS
MARKET-BASED
ODDS
ANALYST-BASED
ODDS
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2020 Election
8/8 - Here is a summary of our current analysis of the Presidential and Senate races:
PRESIDENTLPR's Poll-based
Analysis
Market-basedAnalyst-based
CookInside ElectionsSabatoReal Clear Politics
ELECTORAL VOTES BIDEN TRUMP TIE BIDEN TRUMP TIE BIDEN TRUMP Toss Up BIDEN TRUMP Toss Up BIDEN TRUMP Toss Up BIDEN TRUMP Toss Up
Currently Favored
Projected Seats
Win Probability
342196 
344.5193.5 
99.9+%0.0+%0.0+%
334204
312.9225.1 
91.4%8.2%0.4%
30818743
329.5208.5 
   
31918831
334.5203.5
   
26820466
301207
   
212115211
317.5220.5
   

SENATELPR's Poll-based
Analysis
Market-basedAnalyst-based
CookInside ElectionsSabatoReal Clear Politics
SEATS DEM REP TIE DEM REP TIE DEM REP Toss Up DEM REP Toss Up DEM REP Toss Up DEM REP Toss Up
Currently Favored
Projected Seats
Win Probability
5050
50.449.6 
41.9%6.2%51.9%
5050 
51.348.7 
66.6%16.6%16.8%
47476
49.950.1 
30.0%38.9%31.0%
48484
49.650.4 
22.7%46.2%31.0%
48493
49.350.7 
15.5%56.3%28.2%
45469
49.350.7 
22.1%54.2%23.6%


As seen in the table above, the Senate projections are mixed. The polls are currently pointing to greater than a 50% chance that the Senate will be tied 50-50 after the election. The market-based projection is that there's over a 50% chance that the Democrats will take the Senate outright. On the otherhand, each of our analysts - Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and Real Clear Politics - has the edge going to the Republicans. Below is our Senate Daily Tracking chart for market-based probabilities. While the overall market-based odds favor the Democrats, currently, it's clear that a 50-50 outcome is a distinct possibility if traders are on the correct side.



The Current Probability Distribution for the Senate (market-based):