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LatestPollResults offers an unbiased, statistically-based probability analysis of the Electoral College to project the winner of the Presidential election. We have a perfect record since beginning our analysis in 2000. After determining each candidate's odds of winning in each state, we mathematically compute the probability of every possible Electoral Vote combination to obtain each candidate's overall odds of winning the election. We've also adapted our probability engine to project which party will control the Senate and the House. Below is a "live snapshot" of our overall projections using state-level odds derived from current market-based pricing: | ||||||||||||||||
www.LiveElectionOdds.com
Historically, to determine state-level odds for each candidate, we've analyzed the latest poll in each state. Real-money market-based pricing offers a new, exciting, live, alternative set of state-level odds. Currently, PredictIt.org offers market contracts on all 50 states and D.C. for the Presidential election, 16 contracts for the Senate, and 18 for the House. Additionally, Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes in each congressional district and there are market contracts available for the competitive 2nd congressional district in each state. Traders buy or sell contracts based on which party they believe will win in a particular state. Every minute, we obtain fresh market pricing for each of these contracts, and determine the implied state-level odds for each candidate or party to win, after adjusting for PredictIt's commission. With 53 states and districts, there are 2^53 possible outcomes - or over 9 quadrillion! To obtain the overall odds of winning the election, we compute the probability for every possible electoral vote combination, including the possibility of a 269-269 tie. In case of a tie, the House selects the President. Thus, the odds of a 269-269 tie are prorated according to the odds for each party to control the House. Our "live" probabilities are not future projections. They reflect the outcome assuming the election is held today. www.LiveElectionOdds.com
The current Senate consists of 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. This year there are 34 Senate seats up for regular election. Of those, 24 seats are held by Republicans and 10 by Democrats. There are 16 seats which are considered competitive, 11 are considered safe for the Republicans and 7 safe for the Democrats. This leaves the seat count at 41 for the Republicans and 43 for the Democrats, assuming the Independents caucus with the Democrats. PredictIt has contracts for 17 Senate races, including California which is a race between 2 Democrats. To obtain the overall odds of winning the Senate, we compute live odds for each race and the probability for every possible Senate seat combination, including the possibility of a 50-50 tie. In the event of a tie, control of the Senate is determined by the party which wins the Presidency, since the Vice-President casts the tie-breaking vote. Thus, the odds of a 50-50 tie are prorated according to the odds in the Presidential race. www.LiveElectionOdds.com
For 2016, we begin our probability analysis of the House. Currently, of the 435 House seats, Republicans hold 247 seats, Democrats hold 186 seats, and there are 2 vacancies. In previous elections, determining probabilities for each House race was not possible as polling on House races is scarce. However, for 2016, PredictIt has market contracts for 18 competitive House races and PredictWise.com lists their probability for all 435 House races. In our analysis of the House, if the House race has PredictIt contracts, we're using the market-based odds; if not, we're using the odds from PredictWise. To obtain the overall odds of winning the House, we compute the probability for every possible House seat combination. |
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POLL-BASED ODDS |
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