| Currently Favored |
| Projected Seats |
| Win Probability |
|
| 50 | 50 | |
| 50.4 | 49.6 | |
| 41.9% | 6.2% | 51.9% |
|
| 50 | 50 | |
| 51.3 | 48.7 | |
| 66.6% | 16.6% | 16.8% |
|
| 47 | 47 | 6 |
| 49.9 | 50.1 | |
| 30.0% | 38.9% | 31.0% |
|
| 48 | 48 | 4 |
| 49.6 | 50.4 | |
| 22.7% | 46.2% | 31.0% |
|
| 48 | 49 | 3 |
| 49.3 | 50.7 | |
| 15.5% | 56.3% | 28.2% |
|
| 45 | 46 | 9 |
| 49.3 | 50.7 | |
| 22.1% | 54.2% | 23.6% |
|
As seen in the table above, the Senate projections are mixed. The polls are currently pointing to greater than a 50% chance that the Senate will be tied 50-50 after the election.
The market-based projection is that there's over a 50% chance that the Democrats will take the Senate outright. On the otherhand, each of our analysts - Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and
Real Clear Politics - has the edge going to the Republicans. Below is our Senate Daily Tracking chart for market-based probabilities. While the overall market-based odds favor the Democrats,
currently, it's clear that a 50-50 outcome is a distinct possibility if traders are on the correct side.
The Current Probability Distribution for the Senate (market-based):
