LatestPollResults.com - Statistically-based Probability Analysis of the Electoral College using the Latest Poll Results from each state.

Historically, to determine state-level odds for each candidate, we've analyzed the latest poll in each state. Real-money market-based pricing offers a new, exciting, live, alternative set of state-level odds. Currently, PredictIt.org offers market contracts on all 50 states and D.C. for the Presidential election, 16 contracts for the Senate, and 18 for the House. Additionally, Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes in each congressional district and there are market contracts available for the competitive 2nd congressional district in each state. Traders buy or sell contracts based on which party they believe will win in a particular state.

Every minute, we obtain fresh market pricing for each of these contracts, and determine the implied state-level odds for each candidate or party to win, after adjusting for PredictIt's commission. With 53 states and districts, there are 2^53 possible outcomes - or over 9 quadrillion! To obtain the overall odds of winning the election, we compute the probability for every possible electoral vote combination, including the possibility of a 269-269 tie. In case of a tie, the House selects the President. Thus, the odds of a 269-269 tie are prorated according to the odds for each party to control the House. Our "live" probabilities are not future projections. They reflect the outcome assuming the election is held today.

The current Senate consists of 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. This year there are 34 Senate seats up for regular election. Of those, 24 seats are held by Republicans and 10 by Democrats. There are 16 seats which are considered competitive, 11 are considered safe for the Republicans and 7 safe for the Democrats. This leaves the seat count at 41 for the Republicans and 43 for the Democrats, assuming the Independents caucus with the Democrats.

PredictIt has contracts for 16 Senate races. To obtain the overall odds of winning the Senate, we compute live odds for each race and the probability for every possible Senate seat combination, including the possibility of a 50-50 tie. In the event of a tie, control of the Senate is determined by the party which wins the Presidency, since the Vice-President casts the tie-breaking vote. Thus, the odds of a 50-50 tie are prorated according to the odds in the Presidential race.