LatestPollResults offers an unbiased, statistically-based probability analysis of the Electoral College to determine the winner of the Presidential election. We've had a perfect record since we began our analysis in 2000. We determine each candidate's odds of winning from the latest poll in each of the 50 states and D.C. We mathematically compute the probability of every electoral vote combination to obtain each candidate's overall odds of winning the election. We also adapt our probability engine to project which party will control the Senate.
11/8/2016 President Senate
Democrats 32.2%  20.6% 
Republicans 67.8%  79.4% 
Popular Vote Projection
Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 47.8% 
Trump 45.5% 
3rd party 6.7% 
To take full advantage of a late shift in the polls, we only analyze the latest poll in each state. Since beginning our election analysis in 2000, we've accepted polls from all pollsters, regardless of whether they have a party affiliation. We've never excluded a poll just because we thought it may be an "outlier." For example, our latest poll in Alaska was from a Democratic pollster who indicated Clinton had a poll lead of 47%-43%. Though Alaska isn't polled often, it seemed like it may be an outlier. Trump won Alaska by 15.4%. Nevertheless, this poll was included in our final analysis. We choose to treat each poll with unbiased objectivity.

This year, we began our daily poll-based analysis on August 22nd. Since then, Clinton had led Trump every day... until election eve. On Monday November 7th, 24 new state polls were listed on RealClearPolitics. Of these, 10 had more recent polling periods and therefore replaced polls we had in those 10 states. 4 polls were from The Trafalgar Group , a Republican pollster, who found Trump ahead in Florida by 3.59%, in Georgia by 6.5%, and for the first time, slightly ahead in Michigan by 1.7% and in Pennsylvania by 1.92%.

Our overall poll-based odds dropped from a Clinton win probability of 90.7% without these 4 polls, to a 67.8% win probability for Trump! Tuesday afternoon, when it became apparent that no other polls would be released, we posted our final poll-based analysis on our new blog page. Additionally, we posted our analysis without Trafalgar's polls, to show how just a few polls could tip the odds dramatically. The election was actually much closer than most had realized. We're unaware of any other analyst using poll-based analysis to determine the Electoral College winner, who pointed to a Trump win. We also projected that Clinton would win the popular vote.

From our poll-based analysis of the Senate, our overall odds indicated that the Republicans would control the Senate, regardless of which candidate became president. This also differed from most other analysts projections. Like other analysts, our market-based odds indicated: a Clinton victory (incorrect,) that the Democrats would control the Senate (incorrect,) and that the Republicans would control the House (correct.) When actual votes began being counted, our one-hour live chart of Clinton's overall odds, updated every 40 seconds, showed Clinton's odds beginning to drop. At 9:26pm PST, Clinton's market-based odds dropped below 1%. We projected a Trump win on our blog page. ... more than 2 hours before any network or news agency would call the race.

We only use polls which are reported by RealClearPolitics or HuffingtonPost's Pollster
Here are the latest state polls we used in our final analysis of the Electoral College:

   State      Pollster   Polling
Vote %
Vote %
   % Chance  
   % Chance  
AlaskaCraciun Research (D)10/21 - 10/26400474380%20%
ArizonaData Orbital (R) *11/1 - 11/255039472%98%
ArkansasThe Arkansas Poll10/18 - 10/2758531510%100%
CaliforniaKABC/SurveyUSA10/28 - 10/317475635100%0%
ColoradoPPP (D)11/3 - 11/4704484392%8%
ConnecticutEmerson College9/2 - 9/5100049.834.9100%0%
DelawareUniversity of Delaware9/16 - 9/287625130100%0%
District of Columbia100%0%
FloridaTrafalgar Group (R)11/6 - 11/6110046.1349.7211%89%
GeorgiaTrafalgar Group (R)11/6 - 11/6125045.1151.581%99%
IdahoRasmussen/Heat Street10/23 - 10/2475029480%100%
IllinoisEmerson College10/27 - 10/3050053.441.3100%0%
IndianaWTHR/Howey Politics11/1 - 11/360037480%100%
IowaDes Moines Register11/1 - 11/480039462%98%
KansasFort Hays State University11/1 - 11/331334580%100%
KentuckyWestern Kentucky University10/25 - 10/3060237540%100%
LouisianaSouthern Media/Opinion Research10/19 - 10/2150035500%100%
MaineEmerson College10/28 - 10/3075046.242.387%13%
Maine - CD2Emerson College10/28 - 10/30375444266%34%
MarylandWash Post/Univ. of Maryland9/27 - 9/3070663271000%
MassachusettsWestern NE University10/23 - 11/24175626100%0%
MichiganTrafalgar Group (R)11/6 - 11/6120046.8248.5227%73%
MinnesotaKSTP/SurveyUSA10/22 - 10/256564939100%0%
MississippiMagellan (R)8/11 - 8/11108439520%100%
MissouriEmerson College11/4 - 11/575040.546.54%96%
MontanaMason-Dixon 10/10 - 10/12100336460%100%
NebraskaEmerson College9/25 - 9/2770029.355.70%100%
Nebraska - CD2Emerson College9/25 - 9/2723340497%93%
NevadaEmerson College11/4 - 11/560046.845.860%40%
New HampshireEmerson College11/4 - 11/5100045.443.870%30%
New JerseyRichard Stockton College10/27 - 11/26785140100%0%
New MexicoZia Poll11/6 - 11/68439464497%3%
New YorkSiena College11/3 - 11/46175134100%0%
North CarolinaNY Times/Siena College11/4 - 11/6800444450%50%
North DakotaDFM Research (D)9/12 - 9/1740032431%99%
OhioEmerson College11/4 - 11/590038.945.61%99%
OklahomaSoonerPoll.com10/18 - 10/2053029.659.60%100%
OregonFOX 12/DHM Research 10/25 - 10/29504413497%3%
PennsylvaniaTrafalgar Group (R)11/3 - 11/5130046.5148.4324%76%
Rhode IslandEmerson College10/2 - 10/460051.832.3100%0%
South CarolinaWinthrop University9/18 - 9/26475384216%84%
South DakotaNielson Brothers10/24 - 10/2660035490%100%
TennesseeMiddle Tennessee State University9/28 - 10/247238500%100%
TexasEmerson College10/31 - 11/170034.549.20%100%
UtahY2 Analytics11/1 - 11/350024330%100%
VermontWCAX - Burlington10/19 - 10/226035022100%0%
VirginiaPPP (D)11/3 - 11/41238484397%3%
WashingtonSurveyUSA10/31 - 11/26815038100%0%
West VirginiaGarin-Hart-Yang (D-Reynolds)9/13 - 9/1750028600%100%
WisconsinPPP (D-Center for APAF)*10/31 - 11/1891484199%1%
WyomingDFM Research (D-Greene)9/6 - 9/1140219540%100%
* We were unaware of a newer poll in Arizona and Wisconsin when we posted our final analysis.
Including these polls, the overall odds for Trump winning would have been 63.2%.