**How safe is ***"safe?"*

A state is considered *"safe"* for a candidate if the probability of winning that state is at least 97.5%.

In 2000 we correctly projected a **Bush** win (**71.2%**), with 23 *"safe"* states for **Bush** and 10 *"safe"* states plus DC for **Gore**.

In 2004 we correctly projected a **Bush** win (**66.18%**), with 23 *"safe"* states for **Bush** and 10 *"safe"* states plus DC for **Kerry**.

In 2008 we correctly projected an **Obama** win (**99.9647%**), with 19 *"safe"* states plus DC for **Obama** and 15 *"safe"* states for **McCain**.

**Over the 3 previous presidential elections, 100 states (plus DC three times) have been identified as "safe." All "safe" states have been won by the candidate to whom they were designated as "safe."**

*If the election were held today,* based on the data from the latest state polls,

the probability of **Obama** winning is .

LPR projects that **Obama** is leading by in the Popular Vote.

**Obama** has *"safe"* states plus D.C representing a total of electoral votes.
**Romney** has *"safe"* states representing a total of ** **electoral votes.
- There are
*"battleground"* states representing a total of electoral votes.