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| 11/02 Final Projection | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Senate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Democrats* |
48 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Republicans |
45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Toss-up |
7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Probability of Senate Control | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Democrats* |
97.63% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Republicans |
2.37% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Most Likely: |
51-49 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
*including Independents | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LatestPollResults.com is an unbiased, statistically-based probability model used to analyze the U.S general elections. From the Latest Poll Results for each race, the mathematical probability of winning is calculated for both the Democratic and Republican candidates. A candidate's lead is considered statistically significant if the probability of winning is at least 97.5%. In this case, the candidate is considered "safe" for that race. If a candidate's lead is not statistically significant, then the race is considered a "toss-up". LPR calculates all possible outcomes from the "toss-up" races and calculates the probability of each possible outcome.
Senatorial Race Analysis
There are 63 senators not up for re-election this year: 40 Democrats* and 23 Republicans. There are 37 senatorial races to be determined on election day, 11/2/2010. Democrats have a statistically significant lead in 8 races - Republicans in 22 races. There are 7 races where no candidate has a significant lead. These toss-up states are: California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, and West Virginia. The Democrats, including the two Independent senators Lieberman (CT) and Sanders (VT) who caucus with the Democrats, have a total of 48 senators who are "safe" or not up for re-election - the Republicans have 45.
According to the LPR model, currently the most likely scenario is a 51-49 Democratic majority in the Senate. the probability of each outcome is displayed in the charts below.
Methodology
- Only polls released to the general public are included. (no subscriber-only polls)
- No online or interactive polls are included.
- Polls must include polling dates, percentage values for each candidate, and sample size.
- Polls without "Likely Voters" results are not considered.
- A poll is listed only if the mid-point of the polling period is more recent than the mid-point of the currently listed poll. If the mid-point of two or more polls is identical, non-partisan polls take precedence. The poll with the largest sample size will be used.
Data for this site is compiled using the latest poll results from each state
Contact us with comments
Email: Stephen Delano steve@LatestPollResults.com