11/3 update:
There are 15 states with newer polls today, many in "battleground" states: McCain now leads by 1% in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. Missouri and Ohio are tied with McCain and Obama each polling 49% in both states. Obama has a 1% lead in Montana and Indiana - each poll from PPP - a Democrat pollster. Also, Pennsylvania has moved to "solid" Obama and Virginia has moved to "likely" Obama. There has been slight but noticeable decline in Obama's lead since Saturday. If this momentum continues, it is reasonable to expect that McCain will win in the battlegroud states he's currently leading and should give him as well as in Montana and Indiana. These 11 states: AR AZ LA FL NC GA ND MO OH IN MT would add 130 EV's to his "solid" 117 for a total of 247 vs Obama's "solid" 249. It should be noted that these 11 states were all "red" states in 2000 and 2004. Should McCain capture the 11 states, the 5 states of VA(13) MN(10) CO(9) NV(5) and NM(5) will determine the election. Obama leads in each of these states by 4,3,4,4 and 7 percentage points respectively. If McCain fails to capture the 11 states, it's likely the end of the road for him.

11/2 update:

• NH and VA move to "solid" Obama.
• MN and OH move to "toss-up."

11/1 update:

• The "Kerry" states, representing 252 electoral votes, are all "solid" Obama with the exception of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire which are both "likely" Obama.
• Current polls indicate that Iowa which narrowly went for Gore in 2000 (0.32%) and Bush (0.67%) in 2004 is "solid" Obama giving Obama an additional 7 electoral votes for a total of 259.
  
• In early September, after the Republican convention and before the stock market slide and economic "bailout", McCain was ahead in all other "red" states - though Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico were essentially toss-ups.
• Not counting these three states and without Iowa, McCain would have 260 electoral votes.
  
• For Obama to reach 270+, he only needs to pick off ONE big "Red" state such as Arizona(10), Florida(27), Georgia(15), Indiana(11), Missouri(11), North Carolina(15), Ohio(20), or Virginia(13). The latest polls in these states show Obama is "likely" to win Ohio and Virginia and is leading in Florida and North Carolina.
  
• In the western states, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico are all "likely" Obama.
• For McCain to reach 270+, he needs to take all the "red" states (minus Iowa) and capture at least 2 of the 3 western states.
• Current polls indicate that the most likely electoral vote outcome is Obama 364, McCain 174.
• Prediction: We continue to predict that whoever wins two of the three western states: Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada will likely win the election.

Probability Analysis:

All possible outcomes for the "battleground" states are evaluated. "Battleground" states are those which are not rated as "solid" for either candidate. There are 16 "battleground" states with 172 Electoral Votes. There are 65,536 possible combinations (2^16) of how these states could vote. Each of these combinations has a specific electoral vote value. From each of the 50 states' (and DC) latest poll information, specifically, the reported % for each candidate and the poll's sample size, we calculate the statistical probability of victory for each candidate for the state. The probability of each of the 65,536 possible outcomes is then calculated and grouped by electoral value.

Example:
Calculate the probability of a specific electoral vote scenario, for example a 269-269 electoral tie:
Of the 65,536 possible outcomes, there are 24 possible scenarios whereby Obama would receive exactly 20 electoral votes from the "battleground" states to go with the 249 electoral votes that he has from his "solid" states. McCain would receive the remaining 152 electoral votes from the "battleground" states to go with the 117 electoral votes that he has from his "solid" states. The electoral votes would be tied 269-269.

The most likely possibility for a tie is: