11/07 Summary: 2:10pm EDT 
Popular Vote:
 Bush  46.0% 
Gore  44.5% 
Nader  4.4% 
Other/
Undecided  5.1% 
Electoral Vote: (270 needed to win)
 Bush  188 
Gore  125 
Tossup  225 
Probability of: Victory
 Bush: 270+  71.2% 
Gore: 270+  28.0% 
Tie: 269269  0.8% 
New Senate
 Republicans  48 
Democrats  42 
Tossup  10 




Data for this site is compiled by using the latest poll results of "likely voters" from each state and Washington, D.C.
This site is updated as the latest poll results become available  the site is being updated several times per day.
Be sure to check often, as the polls are very volatile and new polls are released throughout the day.
The Popular Vote is determined by taking the latest poll results of each state and weighting the results of each state to its percentage of the total vote in the 1996 Presidential Election.
At this moment:
Bush has 23 "safe" states  representing 188 electoral votes
Gore has 10 "safe" states and D.C  representing 125 electoral votes
There are 17 states considered tossups representing 225 electoral votes
Note: A state is considered "safe" for a candidate if his lead in the latest poll is at least twice the margin of error in the poll.
Bush States 
Gore States 
(9)  Alabama  
(5)  Nebraska 
(3)  Alaska  
(4)  New Hampshire 
(8)  Arizona  
(14)  North Carolina 
(8)  Colorado  
(3)  North Dakota 
(13)  Georgia  
(8)  Oklahoma 
(4)  Idaho  
(8)  South Carolina 
(12)  Indiana  
(3)  South Dakota 
(6)  Kansas  
(32)  Texas 
(8)  Kentucky  
(5)  Utah 
(9)  Louisiana  
(13)  Virginia 
(7)  Mississippi  
(3)  Wyoming 
(3)  Montana  


(8)  Connecticut
 (3)  D.C
 (4)  Hawaii
 (10)  Maryland
 (12)  Massachusetts
 (10)  Minnesota
 (15)  New Jersey
 (33)  New York
 (23)  Pennsylvania
 (4)  Rhode Island
 (3)  Vermont


188 Electoral Votes 
125 Electoral Votes 
TossUp States 
# 
State 
% Bush 
% Gore 
% Nader 
Latest Poll 
Pollster 
(6)  Arkansas  47  45  2  11/02  Rasmussen Research 
(54)  California  45  45  8  11/0507  Zogby 
(3)  Delaware  46  42  5  10/3111/01  MasonDixon Polling & Research, Inc. 
(25)  Florida  46  48  6  11/0507  Zogby  Reuters/MSNBC 
(22)  Illinois  43  50  7  11/0507  Zogby: St. Louis Post Dispatch 
(7)  Iowa  46  42  3  11/02  Rasmussen Research 
(4)  Maine  43  39  5  10/22  Rasmussen Research 
(18)  Michigan  45  51  4  11/0507  Zogby  Toledo Blade/Pittsburgh Post Gazette 
(11)  Missouri  48  47  3  11/0507  Zogby: St. Louis Post Dispatch 
(4)  Nevada  47  43  2  10/2628  MasonDixon Polling & Research, Inc. 
(5)  New Mexico  45  45  4  11/0102  MasonDixon Polling & Research, Inc. 
(21)  Ohio  48  45  5  11/0507  Zogby  Toledo Blade/Pittsburgh Post Gazette 
(7)  Oregon  44  45  6  10/2430  Oregonian/KATUTV 
(11)  Tennessee  52  45  2  11/0507  Zogby: Reuters/MSNBC 
(11)  Washington  43  50  5  11/0507  Zogby: Reuters/MSNBC 
(5)  West Virginia  45  42  3  11/02  Rasmussen Research 
(11)  Wisconsin  46  46  6  11/0507  Zogby: Reuters/MSNBC 
225 Electoral Votes 

Probability Analysis:
All possible outcomes for the tossup states are determined.
With 17 tossup states, there are 131,072 possible combinations of how these states will vote.
From each state's poll information, specifically, the candidate's lead/deficit margin and the poll's margin of error, we can assign a statistical probability of victory for each candidate.
The probability of each of the 131,072 outcomes is then calculated.
Example:
Calculate the probability of a specific event, for example a 269269 electoral tie, as follows:
There are 1089 possible outcomes where Bush would receive exactly 81 electoral votes (or where Gore would receive exactly 144 electoral votes) within the 17 tossup states.
The probability of a 269269 electoral tie is the sum of the probabilities of each of these outcomes.
Currently, the probability of a 269269 electoral tie is 0.8%
Assumptions:
All states considered "safe," are actually won by the candidate to which they are assigned.
All electors to the Electoral College will vote for the candidate who carried their state's popular vote.
For a detailed analysis of the whatifs of the Electoral College, check out
voter.com.
Contact us with comments or for a customized analysis:
Email: webmaster@websitesplus.com
Phone: Mark Delano at 949.580.6855
