11/07 Summary:
2:10pm EDT
Popular Vote:
Bush46.0%
Gore44.5%
Nader4.4%
Other/
Undecided
5.1%
Electoral Vote:
(270 needed to win)
Bush188
Gore125
Toss-up225
Probability of:
Victory
Bush: 270+71.2%
Gore: 270+28.0%
Tie: 269-269 0.8%
New Senate
Republicans48
Democrats42
Toss-up10
 



Data for this site is compiled by using the latest poll results of "likely voters" from each state and Washington, D.C.

This site is updated as the latest poll results become available - the site is being updated several times per day.

Be sure to check often, as the polls are very volatile and new polls are released throughout the day.

The Popular Vote is determined by taking the latest poll results of each state and weighting the results of each state to its percentage of the total vote in the 1996 Presidential Election.

At this moment:

  • Bush has 23 "safe" states - representing 188 electoral votes
  • Gore has 10 "safe" states and D.C - representing 125 electoral votes
  • There are 17 states considered toss-ups representing 225 electoral votes
  • Note: A state is considered "safe" for a candidate if his lead in the latest poll is at least twice the margin of error in the poll.

    Bush States Gore States
    (9) Alabama   (5) Nebraska
    (3) Alaska (4) New Hampshire
    (8) Arizona (14) North Carolina
    (8) Colorado (3) North Dakota
    (13) Georgia (8) Oklahoma
    (4) Idaho (8) South Carolina
    (12) Indiana (3) South Dakota
    (6) Kansas (32) Texas
    (8) Kentucky (5) Utah
    (9) Louisiana (13) Virginia
    (7) Mississippi (3) Wyoming
    (3) Montana
    (8) Connecticut
    (3) D.C
    (4) Hawaii
    (10) Maryland
    (12) Massachusetts
    (10) Minnesota
    (15) New Jersey
    (33) New York
    (23) Pennsylvania
    (4) Rhode Island
    (3) Vermont
    188 Electoral Votes 125 Electoral Votes


    Toss-Up States
    #
    State
    %
    Bush
    %
    Gore
    %
    Nader
    Latest
    Poll
    Pollster
    (6) Arkansas 4745 2 11/02 Rasmussen Research
    (54) California 4545 8 11/05-07 Zogby
    (3) Delaware 4642 5 10/31-11/01 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
    (25) Florida 4648 6 11/05-07 Zogby - Reuters/MSNBC
    (22) Illinois 4350 7 11/05-07 Zogby: St. Louis Post Dispatch
    (7) Iowa 4642 3 11/02 Rasmussen Research
    (4) Maine 4339 5 10/22 Rasmussen Research
    (18) Michigan 4551 4 11/05-07 Zogby - Toledo Blade/Pittsburgh Post Gazette
    (11) Missouri 4847 3 11/05-07 Zogby: St. Louis Post Dispatch
    (4) Nevada 4743 2 10/26-28 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
    (5) New Mexico 4545 4 11/01-02 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
    (21) Ohio 4845 5 11/05-07 Zogby - Toledo Blade/Pittsburgh Post Gazette
    (7) Oregon 4445 6 10/24-30 Oregonian/KATU-TV
    (11) Tennessee 5245 2 11/05-07 Zogby: Reuters/MSNBC
    (11) Washington 4350 5 11/05-07 Zogby: Reuters/MSNBC
    (5) West Virginia 4542 3 11/02 Rasmussen Research
    (11) Wisconsin 4646 6 11/05-07 Zogby: Reuters/MSNBC
    225 Electoral Votes

    Probability Analysis:
    All possible outcomes for the toss-up states are determined. With 17 toss-up states, there are 131,072 possible combinations of how these states will vote. From each state's poll information, specifically, the candidate's lead/deficit margin and the poll's margin of error, we can assign a statistical probability of victory for each candidate. The probability of each of the 131,072 outcomes is then calculated.

    Example:
    Calculate the probability of a specific event, for example a 269-269 electoral tie, as follows:
    There are 1089 possible outcomes where Bush would receive exactly 81 electoral votes (or where Gore would receive exactly 144 electoral votes) within the 17 toss-up states. The probability of a 269-269 electoral tie is the sum of the probabilities of each of these outcomes.

    Currently, the probability of a 269-269 electoral tie is 0.8%

    Assumptions:

  • All states considered "safe," are actually won by the candidate to which they are assigned.
  • All electors to the Electoral College will vote for the candidate who carried their state's popular vote.

    For a detailed analysis of the what-ifs of the Electoral College, check out voter.com.

    Contact us with comments or for a customized analysis:
    Email: webmaster@websitesplus.com
    Phone: Mark Delano at 949.580.6855