| 11/07 Summary: 2:10pm EDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Popular Vote:
 Bush46.0% | Gore44.5% | Nader4.4% | Other/Undecided5.1% | Electoral Vote: | (270 needed to win) Bush188 | Gore125 | Toss-up225 | Probability of: | Victory Bush: 270+71.2% | Gore: 270+28.0% | Tie: 269-269 0.8% | New Senate
| Republicans48 | Democrats42 | Toss-up10 |  | |||||||||||||||||||
This site is updated as the latest poll results become available - the site is being updated several times per day.
Be sure to check often, as the polls are very volatile and new polls are released throughout the day.
The Popular Vote is determined by taking the latest poll results of each state and weighting the results of each state to its percentage of the total vote in the 1996 Presidential Election.
At this moment:
Note: A state is considered "safe" for a candidate if his lead in the latest poll is at least twice the margin of error in the poll.
| Bush States | Gore States | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 188 Electoral Votes | 125 Electoral Votes |
| Toss-Up States | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | State |
% Bush |
% Gore |
% Nader |
Latest Poll |
Pollster |
| (6) | Arkansas | 47 | 45 | 2 | 11/02 | Rasmussen Research |
| (54) | California | 45 | 45 | 8 | 11/05-07 | Zogby |
| (3) | Delaware | 46 | 42 | 5 | 10/31-11/01 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. |
| (25) | Florida | 46 | 48 | 6 | 11/05-07 | Zogby - Reuters/MSNBC |
| (22) | Illinois | 43 | 50 | 7 | 11/05-07 | Zogby: St. Louis Post Dispatch |
| (7) | Iowa | 46 | 42 | 3 | 11/02 | Rasmussen Research |
| (4) | Maine | 43 | 39 | 5 | 10/22 | Rasmussen Research |
| (18) | Michigan | 45 | 51 | 4 | 11/05-07 | Zogby - Toledo Blade/Pittsburgh Post Gazette |
| (11) | Missouri | 48 | 47 | 3 | 11/05-07 | Zogby: St. Louis Post Dispatch |
| (4) | Nevada | 47 | 43 | 2 | 10/26-28 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. |
| (5) | New Mexico | 45 | 45 | 4 | 11/01-02 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. |
| (21) | Ohio | 48 | 45 | 5 | 11/05-07 | Zogby - Toledo Blade/Pittsburgh Post Gazette |
| (7) | Oregon | 44 | 45 | 6 | 10/24-30 | Oregonian/KATU-TV |
| (11) | Tennessee | 52 | 45 | 2 | 11/05-07 | Zogby: Reuters/MSNBC |
| (11) | Washington | 43 | 50 | 5 | 11/05-07 | Zogby: Reuters/MSNBC |
| (5) | West Virginia | 45 | 42 | 3 | 11/02 | Rasmussen Research |
| (11) | Wisconsin | 46 | 46 | 6 | 11/05-07 | Zogby: Reuters/MSNBC | 225 Electoral Votes |
Probability Analysis:
All possible outcomes for the toss-up states are determined.
With 17 toss-up states, there are 131,072 possible combinations of how these states will vote.
From each state's poll information, specifically, the candidate's lead/deficit margin and the poll's margin of error, we can assign a statistical probability of victory for each candidate.
The probability of each of the 131,072 outcomes is then calculated.
Example:
Calculate the probability of a specific event, for example a 269-269 electoral tie, as follows:
There are 1089 possible outcomes where Bush would receive exactly 81 electoral votes (or where Gore would receive exactly 144 electoral votes) within the 17 toss-up states.
The probability of a 269-269 electoral tie is the sum of the probabilities of each of these outcomes.
Assumptions:
Contact us with comments or for a customized analysis:
Email: Stephen Delano steve@latestpollresults.com